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Expected Monetary Risk Impact

Sum each selected risk’s signed monetary impact weighted by its probability.

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Calculator inputs

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How to use this calculator

  1. Enter the known values in the units shown. Results update as you type.
  2. Where results are editable, change one to solve backwards. Lock a value to hold it fixed.
  3. Use the worked example to check the method. Reset restores the starting fields.

Use the result with context

Results are estimates for planning and education. Confirm rates, taxes, fees, and legal requirements with the relevant institution or a qualified professional before making a financial decision.

Formula and method

A +1,000 impact at 25% and a −200 impact at 50% sum to an expected monetary impact of +150.

Expected monetary impact = sum(probability × signed monetary impact).

Worked example

Enter these known values and leave the other values blank.

How many risks are you considering in your EMV calculation?
2
Impact of occurrence
1000 USD
Probability of occurrence
25 %
Impact of occurrence
-200 USD
Probability of occurrence
50 %
EMV
150 USD

Assumptions and limitations

  • Probability inputs are percentages from 0 to 100. Signed impacts allow costs and opportunities under the sign convention you choose.
  • This sums marginal expected impacts; it does not compute the probability of any loss or describe correlated tail risk. Probabilities need not sum to 100 for separate events.
  • Enter all money amounts in one currency. The retained currency conversion menu uses captured historical conversion factors, not current exchange quotes.
  • Clear an unknown editable field before solving an inverse; fixed selections and output-only fields cannot be inferred.

Common questions

What does this calculation assume?

Probability inputs are percentages from 0 to 100. Signed impacts allow costs and opportunities under the sign convention you choose.

Are these current exchange rates?

No. Use one currency consistently; currency menu factors are a historical snapshot.

References

Add independently reviewed discrete-count, denominator and bounded-probability requirements.

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