Free · Probability and statistical models

Fair Moneyline Odds and Repeated Outcome Chances

Convert a modeled success-to-failure ratio into fair odds and independent sequence probabilities.

  • Formula & worked example
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Calculator inputs

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How to use this calculator

  1. Enter the known values in the units shown. Results update as you type.
  2. Where results are editable, change one to solve backwards. Lock a value to hold it fixed.
  3. Use the worked example to check the method. Reset restores the starting fields.

Private by default

Inputs and results stay in this browser tab. Bookify does not upload or store the values you enter.

Formula and method

A 1:3 success-to-failure ratio implies 25% success probability and decimal odds 4. A stake of 10 returns 40 when successful.

p = success/(success+failure); decimal odds = 1/p; sequence chance = p^n

Worked example

Enter these known values and leave the other values blank.

Chances for success
1
Chances against success
3
Stake
10 USD
Number of consecutive wins
2 times in a row
Number of consecutive losses
2 times in a row
American (moneyline odds)
300
Probability of winning
25 %
Probability of winning {{n_wins_in_a_row.formattedValue}} times in a row
6.25 %
Probability of losing
75 %
Probability of losing {{n_losses_in_a_row.formattedValue}} times in a row
56.25 %
Total returned
40 USD
Potential net profit
30 USD

Assumptions and limitations

  • The implied odds are fair mathematical odds without a bookmaker margin.
  • Repeated outcomes are independent with unchanged probabilities.
  • Net profit excludes stake; total return includes it. The retained model requires positive outcome weights, a positive stake and positive whole sequence lengths.
  • Currency selectors use undated historical reference exchange factors from the captured model. They are not current market rates. For a payout in one currency, keep the stake and all monetary results in that same currency.
  • The retained currency conversion factors are an undated reference snapshot, not a live rate feed. This calculator verifies payout arithmetic; it does not certify present-day currency exchange accuracy.

Common questions

What should I check before using this result?

The implied odds are fair mathematical odds without a bookmaker margin.

References

Enforce the mathematical input domain and include valid zero boundaries while preserving the captured arithmetic and control graph.

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